Are prices "in orbit" or "down to earth"?

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Real Estate

Here's a Headline and 1st line in a recent article in MetroTex News:

North Texas Home Prices Rocket 26% Higher in May
Already astronomical North Texas home prices were sent into orbit in May.

So is this true?  I took some data from Prosper over the last 11 years and it shows something rather surprising and that while there is a bump,  it's not much of one if you look at the long term trends.  

Take a look at this graph from 2010-2021 for Prosper, TX.

Prosper Texas Average Home Price vs Median Home Price since 2010

Yes, you can see a increase between 2021 and 2020 but as you can imagine 2020 was pretty flat so 2021 seems just to be making up for lost time.  So no bubble here in Prosper and since Prosper has become pretty high end with a median Household income over $30k/year more than my old home in Newport Beach, CA I think we can use this as being pretty indicative of our area.  Because you would expect high end areas to grow faster than lower end areas and we just aren't seeing much of a bump in prices relative to the trend line.

Just for fun I also looked at the population growth vs the number of sold properties in May of each year since 2010 and what we see is that sales have risen almost in lockstep with the population growth with a corrected blip in 2019 being brought back in line over the last few years.

Prosper population growth vs closed home sales in may of every year since 2010

So what does this tell us?  Well the limited data tells us that as far as Prosper and the surrounding area is concerned, there is no bubble in prices nor are the price increases really anything to write home about compared to past history since 2010.